Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 16.001195 19.432097 23.250901 27.792527 33.021382 38.827352 45.735222
2025-04-13 9.935945 14.012466 19.084922 25.756084 34.185015 44.362282 57.448903
2025-04-20 7.516958 11.909628 17.856829 26.270037 37.610396 52.094828 71.683910
2025-04-27 6.008882 10.537003 17.124598 27.020202 41.065804 59.807272 86.145224
2025-05-04 4.983461 9.580531 16.709137 27.986079 44.702654 67.825310 101.344295
2025-05-11 4.120658 8.659536 16.137530 28.547022 47.679392 75.003108 115.702136
2025-05-18 3.311046 7.626990 15.186637 28.337265 49.395524 80.395682 127.759332
2025-05-25 2.566879 6.521918 13.907568 27.388239 49.807909 83.810504 137.057873
2025-06-01 2.067125 5.765004 13.094221 27.068290 51.104649 88.523505 148.384513
2025-06-08 1.578305 4.889566 11.898160 25.903120 50.864716 90.794019 156.088837
2025-06-15 1.371287 4.606346 11.801296 26.684853 53.905007 98.301706 172.039732
2025-06-22 1.086423 4.040020 11.021608 26.078496 54.470214 101.844614 181.962525
2025-06-29 0.956353 3.880313 11.154245 27.388064 58.765150 112.083263 203.553632
2025-07-06 0.653286 3.093765 9.724008 25.397551 56.952468 112.186030 209.154676
2025-07-13 0.538662 2.848476 9.517965 25.907097 59.803508 120.292732 228.080889
2025-07-20 0.453582 2.666219 9.429477 26.649026 63.138932 129.389086 249.010542
2025-07-27 0.389459 2.532473 9.439540 27.604265 66.949600 139.492876 272.019308
2025-08-03 0.323698 2.354711 9.287615 28.159061 69.985633 148.349104 293.250270
2025-08-10 0.251497 2.097734 8.843045 27.951600 71.431058 154.381808 309.864848
2025-08-17 0.180984 1.786664 8.145800 27.013004 71.248257 157.383831 321.310762
2025-08-24 0.136757 1.579595 7.721697 26.696587 72.344854 162.791224 337.146741
2025-08-31 0.092974 1.318039 7.024918 25.544351 71.492161 164.426800 346.303821
2025-09-07 0.078155 1.254907 7.032839 26.317394 75.002029 174.611044 371.189179